Thursday, January 15, 2009

Another Day, Another "Plug"

Ditto our prior article Static Measures for a Dynamic Environment:

Moody's is revising its assumptions to reflect the expected stress of the global recession and tightened credit conditions on corporate default rates, which are likely to be more variable and extreme than those in other recent historical downturns. Specifically, the changes announced today include: (1) a 30% increase in the assumed likelihood of default for all corporate credits in synthetic CDOs, and (2) an increase in the degree to which ratings are adjusted according to other credit indicators such as rating Reviews and Outlooks. Moody's also announced an increase in the default correlation it applies to corporate portfolios as generated through a combination of higher default rates and an increase in investment grade and financial sector asset correlations.

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