Showing posts with label Litigation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Litigation. Show all posts

Monday, March 16, 2020

Investor Protections (of a Legal Variety) in the Aftermath of a Meltdown

In a recent journal article available here, mortgage guru Mark Adelson has compiled another of his terrific analyses of the mortgage meltdown, and some of the letdowns of post-crisis legislation.
You have to read the piece in its entirety, but here are just some of his analytical gems and opinions to give you a flavor for what’s inside:
  • “The mortgage meltdown produced $1 trillion (±20%) of losses from 2007 through 2016. The losses were borne primarily by investors in non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).”
  • “Investors around the world invest in the US markets because they have integrity and there are multiple checks in place to ensure that misrepresentations are remedied.”
  • “Nonetheless, the Mortgage Meltdown of the late 2000s left many investors reeling. They suffered huge losses on non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issued from roughly 2005 through 2007. Those losses came from a wave of defaults and foreclosures on mortgage loans originated during those years. During that time, there was a broad deterioration of practices across the mortgage lending and securitization industry.”
  • “The full extent of the breakdown in practices started to come to light in 2013, when the US Department of Justice (DOJ) began settling lawsuits against the major banks.”
  • “Common types of defects included (i) defective appraisals that overstated the value of homes, (ii) exceptions allowed without sufficient compensating factors, (iii) missing or inaccurate documentation of borrower income or assets, and (iv) misstated occupancy status. When the loans were included in MBS deals, the offering materials did not disclose the defects.”
  • “By the time this mounting evidence came to light, it was too late for most investors to sue under the federal securities laws to recover their losses.”
  • “The legislative response to the mortgage meltdown and the broader financial crisis did not address the time limits issue. The time limit under the 1933 Act remains a critical piece of unfinished business. If it is not addressed, America’s capital markets will remain vulnerable to a repeat of the mortgage meltdown experience. We propose extending the 1933 Act’s maximum time limit to 12 years for actions based on misstatements or omissions in connection with the sale of non-agency MBS (i.e., actions under 1933 Act §§ 11 and 12(a)(2)).”
  • “Issuance of non-agency MBS fell off sharply following the mortgage meltdown. […] Attempts to revive the non-agency MBS market have been unsuccessful.”
  • “The aftermath of the mortgage meltdown offers potential lessons for lawyers, business professionals, and policy makers. The episode was arguably the largest failure of legal protections for investors since the Great Depression. Investors have recovered only a small percentage of their total losses.”

That’s just a taste – for more, download the paper by clicking here.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Lawsuits "Without Merit"

Theranos

Hero-turned-villain Elizabeth Holmes is once again the talk of the town, with HBO's documentary Out for Blood in Silicon Valley bringing her into our living rooms.  (A feature film, Bad Blood, will be coming soon, starring Jennifer Lawrence.)

Back in 2015, Forbes listed Holmes as one of America's Richest Self-Made Women, with a net worth of $4.5 billion.  Now, Holmes' net worth is closer to zero, and she awaits her day in court -- facing fraud charges -- while Theranos, the $9 or $10 billion company she "built" is now defunct.  (Dollar numbers based on valuations/private fundraisings at its peak.)

1MDB

Meanwhile on the other side of the world former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib's trial has begun.  

Most of the charges laid against him concern the siphoning of monies (billions!) from the state development fund, 1MDB.  Some of those monies are alleged to have found their way back to Najib and his wife.  Much of the rest seems to have been spent, and often wasted, by the energetic and now notorious Jho Low, who bought yachts and houses, bottles of Cristal, jewelry (for models), threw parties and otherwise lived the life of the rich and famous alongside his good friends Jamie Foxx, Leo Di Caprio, Paris Hilton, Pharrell Williams and other celebs.

But some of the 1MDB monies also found their way to Goldman Sachs and its prized individuals. (Goldman would confer honors on those individuals.)  Goldman Sachs partner Tim Leissner has since pleaded guilty to bribery and money laundering.  While Goldman made (an outrageous) ~$600 million out of the 1MDB issuances, Leissner pocketed some $40 million + just for himself.  Good work if you can get it.

Cases Without Merit

Bringing this all together, what's interesting about Elizabeth Holmes and Goldman Sachs is that the allegations made against them are "without merit" -- they assure us.

In May 2016, when Theranos was hit with class action lawsuits, Theranos was quick to explain to the press that: "The lawsuit filed today against Theranos is without merit," she wrote in an email. "The company will vigorously defend itself against these claims."

When Partner Fund Management LP, a hedge fund based in San Francisco, sued Theranos in October 2016 for a "series of lies" and material misstatements, Theranos told the Wall Street Journal that this lawsuit “is without merit and Theranos will fight it vigorously. The company is very appreciative of its strong investor base that understands and continues to support the company’s mission.”

Walgreens also sued.  You can predict this one: Walgreen's lawsuit, too, was "without merit."

Back in 2015, when suspicion was cast on the extraordinary fees being paid to Goldman, and the nature of their conduct warranting these fees, a Goldman Sachs spokesperson was quick to justify them, explaining: "These transactions were individually tailored financing solutions, the fee and commissions for which reflected the underwriting risks assumed by Goldman Sachs on each series of bonds, as well as other prevailing conditions at the time, including spreads of credit benchmarks, hedging costs, and general market conditions."

When the Malaysian authorities filed criminal charges against Goldman, in December 2018, Goldman was quick to dismiss them, reassuring its shareholders. “We believe these charges are misdirected and we will vigorously defend them and look forward to the opportunity to present our case. The firm continues to cooperate with all authorities investigating these matters," the bank said in a statement.

Other Lawsuits Without Merit

Some cases, of course, have no merit.  Others have merit. 

But the question we ask is what confidence shareholders can draw from prepared, public statements made by companies that the lawsuits against them have no merit?  If companies roll out a standard defense, reassuring shareholders that no major liability lies before them, can shareholders be assured that this is a truthful statement, as opposed to simply a negotiating technique?

Holmes and Goldman might well successfully defend the actions against them.  Who knows - stranger things have happened.  (The Theranos and 1MDB sagas, themselves, are pretty out-there as occurrences go!)

But whether they win or not, Theranos is done and dusted: it has been shut down.  Goldman, meanwhile, has suffered significant fallout in its Malaysian operations: Goldman is struggling to get any share deals done, and has reportedly dropped to 18th in the local M&A deal rankings. And Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi state investment fund, has reportedly ceased doing any new business with Goldman. 

We pulled together an enlightening list of some (handsome) settlements entered into by financial institutions in the near aftermath of dismissing cases against them as being meritless -- and having promised to vigorously defend them -- only to settle for large amounts, sometimes soon thereafter. (emphasis added)



Thursday, February 8, 2018

Market Trading Investigations - Layering, Spoofing, Front-Running, Stop-Loss Triggering

Adding to our prior compilations of valuation issues, questions of fairness in market executions, and fee disclosure concerns, we are adding a new set that looks at investigations into, and allegations of layering, spoofing, front-running, barrier-running and stop-loss triggering in the financial markets.
  1. Jan 2018: Spoofing - Precious Metals; S&P Futures. CFTC Files Eight Anti-Spoofing Enforcement Actions against Three Banks (Deutsche Bank, HSBC & UBS) & Six Individuals 
  2. Jan 2018: Front-running - FX. HSBC front-running victim (Prudential Plc) 
  3. Jan 2018: Front-running - FX. Barclays front-running of HPQ in $8.3bn FX options trade 
  4. Oct 2017: Front-running - FX. U.S. jury finds ex-HSBC executive guilty of fraud in $3.5 billion currency trade 
  5. Aug 2017: Spoofing - Treasury Futures; Eurodollar Futures. CFTC Finds that The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. Engaged in Spoofing of Treasury Futures and Eurodollar Futures 
  6. Jul 2017: Spoofing - Commodity Futures (multiple). CFTC Orders New York Trader Simon Posen to Pay a $635,000 Civil Monetary Penalty and Permanently Bans Him from Trading in CFTC-Regulated Markets for Spoofing in the Gold, Silver, Copper, and Crude Oil Futures Markets 
  7. Jun 2017: Spoofing - Precious Metals. CFTC Finds Former Trader David Liew Engaged in Spoofing and Manipulation of the Gold and Silver Futures Markets and Permanently Bans Him from Trading and Other Activities in CFTC-Regulated Markets 
  8. Mar 2017: Spoofing - Equities (cash and contracts for difference). Ex-DBS Trader Convicted in Singapore's First Spoofing Case 
  9. Jan 2017: Spoofing - Treasury Futures. CFTC Orders Citigroup Global Markets Inc. to Pay $25 Million for Spoofing in U.S. Treasury Futures Markets and for Related Supervision Failures 
  10. Dec 2016: Stop-Loss Triggering - FX. Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) accepts Enforceable Undertaking from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) for triggering FX customer stop-loss orders 
  11. Dec 2016: Spoofing - Futures (equity index; crude oil; natural gas; cooper; VIX). Federal Court Orders Chicago Trader Igor B. Oystacher and 3Red Trading LLC to Pay $2.5 Million Penalty for Spoofing and Employment of a Manipulative and Deceptive Device, while Trading Futures Contracts on Multiple Futures Exchanges 
  12. Nov 2016: Spoofing - Equity Index Futures. Federal Court in Chicago Orders U.K. Resident Navinder Singh Sarao to Pay More than $38 Million in Monetary Sanctions for Price Manipulation and Spoofing 
  13. Jan 2015: Layering & Spoofing - Equities. Canadian Man Charged in First Federal Securities Fraud Prosecution Involving 'Layering' 
  14. Jul 2013: Spoofing - Commodity Future (multiple). CFTC Orders Panther Energy Trading LLC and its Principal Michael J. Coscia to Pay $2.8 Million and Bans Them from Trading for One Year, for Spoofing in Numerous Commodity Futures Contracts 
  15. Dec 2012: Spoofing - Wheat Futures. CFTC Files Complaint in Federal Court against Eric Moncada, BES Capital LLC, and Serdika LLC Alleging Attempted Manipulation of Wheat Futures Contract Prices, Fictitious Sales, and Non-Competitive Transactions 

Friday, June 30, 2017

You Can’t Do That On Chat!

Since the global financial crisis, all sorts of investigations have gone on in the financial markets, and some very interesting chats have been made public. We're collecting some of the more saucy IMs and phone calls here, in their original form (with spelling errors retained):


UBS [Trader A]: and if u have stops….
UBS [Trader A]: oh boy
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: HAHA
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: who ya gonna call!
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: STOP BUSTERS
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: deh deh deh deh dehdehdeh deh deh deh deh dehdehdeh
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: haha16 
June 2011 | electronic chat (likely) | Product: Silver Futures | Deutsche Bank & UBS
In re London Silver Fixing Ltd Antitrust Litigation Proposed 3rd Amended Consolidated Complaint


Trader to prospective cartel member: “mess this up and sleep with one eye open at night.”
2011 | electronic chat | Product: FX (one month trial to join "cartel") | Barclays | Link


(Future) Co-Head of UK FX Hedge Fund Sales: “markup is making sure you make the right decision on price . . . which is whats the worst price i can put on this where the customers decision to trade with me or give me future business doesn’t change . . . if you aint cheating, you aint trying.”
Nov. 2010 | electronic chat | Product: FX | Barclays | Link


Broker-B (non-UBS) to Trader-1: “mate yur getting bloody good at this libor game . . . think of me when yur on yur yacht in monaco wont yu”
June 2009 | electronic chat | Product: LIBOR | UBS | Link


Employee 1 to Employee 2: “[We] can’t mark any of our positions [to market price], and obviously that’s what saves us having this enormous mark to market. If we start buying the physical bonds back then any accountant is going to turn around and say, well, John, you know you traded at 90, you must be able to mark your bonds then.”
June 2007 | telephone chat | Product: RMBS/CDOs | AIG | Link 


Analyst #1: Btw (by the way) that deal is ridiculous. 
Analyst #2: I know right…model def (definitely) does not capture half the risk. 
Analyst #1: We should not be rating it. 
Analyst #2: We rate every deal. It could be structured by cows and we would rate it.
April 2007 | electronic chat | Product: RMBS/CDOs | S&P | Link


Trader-10: “Good morning [Submitter-4], [Trader-10] here.. could we please ask you to put in low 1m fixing pls”
Submitter-4: “Difficlt, think [Senior Manager-6] wnarts it [] on the high side”
Trader-10: “Oh no!! But ladies first no ;))?”
Submitter-4: “First come first serve.”
Trader-10: “Exctly.. And we have been begging you for last two month!!”
Submitter-4: “But u dont sign my bonus right?”
Trader-10: “Hahah hmmm.. Unfortunately not...”
Oct. 2005 | electronic chat | Product: EURIBOR | Deutsche Bank  | Link


Trader 3: “LOWER MATE LOWER !!”
Submitter 1: “will see what i can do but it’ll be tough as the cash is pretty well bid,”
Trader 3: “[Bank A] IS DOIN IT ON PURPOSE BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE EXACT OPPOSITE POSITION – ON WHICH THEY LOST 25MIO SO FAR – LET’S TAKE THEM ON.”
Submitter 1: “ok, let’s see if we can hurt them a little bit more then.”
Sept. 2005 | electronic chat | Product: LIBOR | Deutsche Bank | Link


Trader: “I was front running EVERY single offer in usdjpy and eurjpy.”
  …
Trader: “call me a legend! Front run legend.”
  …
Trader: “jamming some stops in eurusd here at 0515”
  …
Trader: “the day of intervention, i was front running EVERY SINGLE ODA and I mean EVERY haha” 
Dates unknown (multiple) | electronic chats | Product: FX | UBS | Link

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Not ... Just ... Yet ... Wells, Fargo

If Wells Fargo didn't already have enough to worry about, last week things got a little bit more “interesting” with the filing, against Wells, of a class action complaint filed by employee-participants in its $35 billion retirement plan.

Wells is busy dealing with the aftermath of its fake accounts scandal.  It has paid the CFPB a $185 million penalty, but the reputational fall-out is ongoing, as outsiders seem to show more empathy towards the (former) employees at the heart of the scandal, and less with the company itself. Hundreds if not thousands of Wells' employees were let go over a period spannin years, accused of fraudulently opening 2 million customer accounts ... enough to cost former Chairman and CEO John Stumpf his job.  He fell on his sword last month. 

Much has been made of  the culture at Wells Fargo that may have enticed (or even compelled) thousands of employees to conclude that it was better to conjure up fake customer accounts than to fall short of sales quotas, especially after some of the 5,300 workers fired for the scandal decided to sue for wrongful termination that they allege was in retaliatory.  (With a nod in Wells Fargo's direction, the CFPB put out a bulletin yesterday on "Detecting and Preventing Consumer Harm from Production Incentives.")

The complaint filed last week  alleges that Wells Fargo enriched itself at the expense of its employees by engaging “in a practice of self-dealing and imprudent investing of Plan assets by funneling billions of dollars of those assets into Wells Fargo’s own proprietary funds.” The plaintiffs argue that Wells Fargo’s proprietary funds, specifically its target date funds (which were a default investment option), charged higher fees than, and under-performed against, comparable funds. 

It is a familiar tune that we have heard from employee plaintiffs at other financial services firms, such as Morgan Stanley and Putnam Investments, two of several financial services firms recently accused of self-dealing through its employee retirement plans. Similar cases have already been settled (e.g. Ameriprise for $27.5 mm and Mass Mutual for $31 mm). Self-dealing asset managers are not the only alleged culprits – 2016 has seen at least two dozen lawsuits over retirement plan fees and offerings, including twelve by university employees.

Pat Bagley, Salt Lake Tribune; licensed by PF2

A primer on the ERISA litigation can be found here.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
The case is: Meiners v. Wells Fargo & Company et al (16-cv-03981) 

More on issues of corporate culture at financial institutions, here

Friday, November 18, 2016

FX Settlements Up and Up-dated

It has been a little over a year since we last visited the state of currency markets litigation.

For the main benchmark rigging allegation issue, overall settlements have now surpassed $12.2 billion, primarily in fees imposed by global supervisory authorities.  North American private actions account for over $2 billion, but many of the defendants are yet to settle.  Since our last update, we have seen three, albeit relatively small, settlements by defendants in the Canadian class action.

Outside of the main case, there have been settlements by custodians State Street ($530 mm) and Bank of New York ($714 mm) in cases alleging they failed to provide, as promised, "best execution" on FX conversions on standing orders.  Separately, Barclays has settled with regulators and a private litigant over issues concerning its backing away from live quotes, implementing a potentially one-sided "last-look" approach.

Here is the current status of the settlements in re potential benchmark rigging.  It is noteworthy that counselors representing the class actions have pursued, and often exacted large settlements from, parties that have escaped regulatory fines.


Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Disclosure, or What You Will

Seven years after the demise of Lehman Brothers, lawsuits on related financial products are heating up, with a number of RMBS and CDO cases seeing reversals of fortune. 

But first, some background. 

This may seem odd – but so far most of the arguments have had little to do with whether the defendants did anything wrong.[1]  

Rather, the focus has been on peripheral issues, like: (1) jurisdiction; (2) whether the plaintiffs had standing to sue; (3) whether the plaintiffs sued within the permissible time frame; (4) whether the defendants were indeed obligated to fulfill any of the duties they are accused of violating; and (5) whether the investment risks were appropriately disclosed. 

Recent rulings have focused on this final element, and have been rendered in a way largely favorable to the plaintiffs. This is the focal point of today’s post. 


Disclosures and Disclosures – Five Shades of Grey 

Disclosures are subjective issues; they are forms of art. And, most importantly, they are not Boolean – they are not simply present or absent. 

There are various shades of grey. Consider for example the following possible disclosures regarding a bridge: 
  1. Cross bridge at your own risk 
  2. We have performed one or more tests and happen to believe that this bridge is particularly risky, or more risky than other bridges 
  3. This bridge fails to satisfy the criteria set for bridges by the relevant architectural/building standards and safety boards 
  4. We built this bridge and know that it suffers from certain structural flaws 
  5. This may look like a bridge, but it is made of straw and has simply been dressed up to look like a bridge. Do not cross! 



These disclosures differ greatly, and one cannot reasonably argue that all provide the same informational content. 

Of course, it may be okay to sell a distressed asset or a structurally flawed house, as long as its known shortcomings are appropriately disclosed; but when a particular risk is known to one party (often the seller) we argue that the material information needs to be properly disclosed. 

For our purposes, it may be helpful to break disclosures down into three broad categories: 
  1. Those that are general (non-specific) and describe overall risk
  2. Those that describe particular risk(s)
  3. Those that describe the advanced knowledge that one party to an agreement has (over the other) pertaining to particular risk(s) 


Reliance – A Practitioner’s Perspective[2] 

The recent rulings, which we’ll get to in a moment, give us some confidence that the legal system is supporting the essence of what investing in the US financial markets is all about. 

The defenses that “it was disclosed that the investment contained risk” or that “we warned the investor to perform his own due diligence” seem to us to be off-point and insufficient. 

From a practitioner’s perspective, it should be noted that investors are just about always warned that investments contain risks. Of course they do – there’s seldom a reason to invest without the expectation of a positive return[3], and risk and return go hand in hand. And due diligence can often be impractical or prohibitively expensive, and even if it can be performed it may not uncover the true nature of hidden risks, especially if they are known only to certain insiders. 

But in this “trust -but-verify” bargain, is the “trust” element still there? 

Let’s suppose that due diligence could be performed. Should investors have to check everything – every piece of data represented to them to be true and accurate, every potential conflict disclosed or undisclosed, every legal opinion upon which the transaction’s solidity is based, and every accounting record? What is the purpose of a representation or warranty, if the onus remains on the person accepting the representation or warranty? 

In short, shouldn’t investors be allowed to rely on some things? 

Buying a new car encourages some level of diligence too – one may want to take it for a test-drive. But is it healthy to expect or require each car buyer to have advanced engineering or mechanical skills and to test each part for herself? 

We argue it isn’t: such due diligence, while commendable, defeats the purpose. When buying a new car, a purchaser ought to be able to rest easy, relying on her property rights and on the manufacturer’s name and representations, and fairly assume that the parts used are new, in working order, and are expected (certainly by the manufacturer) to last. 

Similarly, when buying a financial product that has been structured by a bank, it would promote market efficiency and be most expedient if investors were able to freely rely on representations and warranties made to them by the banks about the collateral supporting the product. And when a representation turns out to have been faulty, investors could then expect to have recourse through the court system – one of the very reasons overseas investors invest in US-based financial products! 


Decisions, Decisions… 

On the RMBS/CDO side, a recent lower court ruling and a slew of higher court rulings have ended favorably for plaintiffs, finding that the disclosures and disclaimers[4]  provided were not specific enough – reversing decisions made by lower courts that those disclosures had been sufficiently specific. 

Various groups of defendants, in different litigation matters, had regularly made the argument that they had disclosed that some of the thousands of loans that made their way into the mortgage pool may fail to comply with the representations and warranties made of them. Well that’s fair enough – there may have been a data error here or there that is yet to be discovered. 

But at the time of writing this disclosure that “some” loans “may” fail, the truth was very different. Often some loans were already failing (and known to have been failing) to meet one or more of the criteria needed to pass. Moreover, and importantly, it was even the expectation of some defendants at that time that several other loans would imminently be found to fail too. 

In other words, several defendants made the weakest possible disclosure: that something may possibly happen. Meanwhile, defendants often already knew that it was happening, and often en masse. Disclosing that a violation may occur is different from disclosing (1) that violations are known to be occurring, or (2) that the procedures employed leave ample room for the occurrence of violations (and so forthcoming violations should be expected).[5] 

As it happens, in some cases defendants had set up tests to identify noncompliance in loans sampled within the pool. When they found that a high percentage of the sampled loans failed to comply with the representations and warranties, they failed to re-examine the non-sampled loans, but waived them into the securitization trusts anyway. Thus, they knew, or should have known, that a high percentage of the non-sampled loans would fail to meet the criteria upon which they were being purchased into the trusts. In FHFA v Nomura, the court examined the true nature of the mortgage loans being waived into the trust as conforming collateral: 
"Measured conservatively, the deviations from originators’ guidelines made anywhere from 45% to 59% of the loans in each [supporting loan group] materially defective, with underwriting defects that substantially increased the credit risk of the loan."[6] 

Some Examples – Decisions Favorable to Plaintiffs 

     Basis Yield v Goldman (CDO) [7]

The First Department decided that the disclosures were “boilerplate statements” that failed to put the investors on notice of the nature of the risks inherent in the investment (as alleged by the plaintiffs) [8]. The court held that if “plaintiff's allegations are accepted as true, there is a ‘vast gap’ between the speculative picture Goldman presented to investors and the events Goldman knew had already occurred.”[9]  

     ACA v Goldman (CDO) 

In May 2015, the New York Court of Appeals – the state’s highest court – reversed an order by the Appellate Division, holding that “plaintiff here claims that defendant knew that [co-defendant] Paulson was taking a position contrary to plaintiff's interest, but withheld that information, despite plaintiff's inquiries.”[10] 

     FHFA v Nomura (RMBS) 

In this bench trial, the court honed in on the direct issue at hand, ruling in favor of the plaintiff: 
“This case is complex from almost any angle, but at its core there is a single, simple question. Did defendants accurately describe the home mortgages in the Offering Documents for the securities they sold that were backed by those mortgages?”[11] 
     Basis Yield v Morgan Stanley (CDO) 

The court leaned heavily on several prior rulings[12] of the First Department which had recently rejected most of the contentions raised by Morgan Stanley, similar to those advanced in the same court. 

In the court’s words, “The First Department held that New York law is ‘abundantly clear’ that ‘a buyer’s disclaimer of reliance cannot preclude a claim of justifiable reliance on the seller’s misrepresentations or omissions unless (1) the disclaimer is made sufficiently specific to the particular type of fact misrepresented or undisclosed; and (2) the alleged misrepresentations or omissions did not concern facts peculiarly within the seller’s knowledge.” 

In denying Morgan Stanley’s motion to dismiss, the court held that, assuming plaintiff’s allegations to be true, the disclosures “did not apprise investors that Morgan Stanley had deliberately sabotaged assets in the CDO to profit from its short positions.”[13] 


Some Examples – Decisions Favorable to Defendants 

     HSH Nordbank v UBS AG (RMBS) 

HSH Nordbank is one example of an RMBS ruling that went the way of defendants. 

The court ruled that “Here, the core subject of the complained-of representations was the reliability of the credit ratings used to define the permissible composition of the reference pool. The reliability of those ratings was the premise on which the entire deal was sold to HSH. Far from being peculiarly within UBS's knowledge, the reliability of the credit ratings could be tested against the public market's valuation of rated securities.” 

In other words, plaintiff HSH could reasonably have uncovered that the ratings were misrepresented had HSH exercised the necessary due diligence.[14] 

     Lanier v BATS (HFT) 

Lanier, a case concerning high-frequency trading (or HFT), presents a more recent set-back for plaintiffs. 

Lanier’s argument, to a degree, is this: Lanier paid for time-sensitive trading information from NASDAQ; NASDAQ has other clients who paid more, and so they got this time-sensitive information before Lanier did, rendering the information stale and inaccurate by the time it arrived at Lanier’s desk. Lanier argues that he was not appropriately informed that he was being trumped – and that the spirit of the agreement was that nobody would get information before him. 

To use the court’s words, Lanier’s argument is that “when defendants make market data available to preferred data customers more quickly than other customers, they violate Regulation NMS, which is incorporated by reference into contracts between plaintiff Lanier and defendants.” In his words, he seeks “redress for a violation of a contractual commitment prohibiting defendants from providing earlier access to market data to Preferred Data Customers” and as a result, the sale of stale data to him. 

In Lanier’s words, “The Preferred Data Customers are then able to cancel orders and execute trades before Subscribers [like Lanier] even receive the market data.” 

But the court sympathized with the provision of what seems to us to be an extraordinarily weak form of disclosure. The court viewed the following paragraph in the subscription agreement to have been, in the court’s words, “pertinent.” 
“Neither NYSE, any Authorizing SRO nor the Processor (the “disseminating parties”) guarantees the timeliness, sequence, accuracy, or completeness of Market Data or other market information or messages disseminated by any disseminating party. No disseminating party shall be liable in any way to Subscriber or to any other person for (a) any inaccuracy, error or delay in, or omission of, (i) any such data, information, or message, or (ii) the transmission or delivery of any such data, information or message, or (b) any loss or damage arising from or occasioned by (i) any such inaccuracy, error, delay or omission, [or] (ii) non-performance . . . .” (emphasis added by the court) [15]
The court also took particular comfort in the provision within the Nasdaq Subscriber Agreement of a disclosure that reads “STOCK QUOTES MIGHT NOT BE CURRENT OR ACCURATE” and grants the motion to dismiss, preventing any further discovery.[16] 

 Indeed Nasdaq warranted to Lanier that it would “endeavor to offer the Information as promptly and accurately as is reasonably practicable.” If we take plaintiff’s allegations to be true, as we must at the motion to dismiss stage, then clearly NASDAQ did not provide it to Lanier as promptly as reasonably practicable, and it knew it wasn’t doing so. 

The court asserted that Lanier’s “argument misreads the Subscriber Agreements, which promise one thing: the provision of consolidated market data to Lanier and other subscribers like him. The contracts do not prohibit provision of the same data in different forms to different kinds of customers, whether in consolidated or unconsolidated form. And in general the duty of good faith and fair dealing does not provide a cause of action separate from a breach of contract claim, as “breach of that duty is merely a breach of the underlying contract.” 

Sadly, in rendering its opinion the court ignores the spirit of the agreement – the intent – and probably the content too. 


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FOOTNOTES

[1] For example, in a bench trial (FHFA v Nomura), the court noted that no real defense was presented as to the inappropriateness of defendants’ actions. “Today, defendants do not defend the underwriting practices of their originators. They did not seek at trial to show that the loans within the SLGs were actually underwritten in compliance with their originators’ guidelines. At summation, defense counsel essentially argued that everyone understood back in 2005 to 2007 that the loans were lousy and had not been properly underwritten.” Opinion at page 267. 

[2] Our goal here is to share a practitioner’s perspective. We do not provide advice of any kind –certainly not legal advice. 

[3] As scientists we must disclose our awareness of several situations in which investments are made without the expectation of a directly positive return, above 0%. While such examples exist, they are in the great minority of investments. For example, 5-year Swiss government bonds currently yield negative 0.539%, and there do exist rational arguments for investing in a negative yielding instrument, including for lack of available alternatives.) 

[4] Hereafter, we will use the short-hand “disclosures” to describe both disclosures and disclaimers. 

[5] An argument could be made that disclosure is faulty when it describes an occurrence as a remote possibility, when it’s known to be likely or inevitable – akin to a form of false advertising. Such disclosure disguises the true nature of the possibility. 

[6] Opinion at page 171 

[7] First Department decision and opinion at page 9 (1/30/2014) 

[8] In the court’s words “These disclaimers and disclosures, in our view, fall well short of tracking the particular misrepresentations and omissions alleged by plaintiff.” 

[9] A similar finding was made by the First Department in Loreley v Citigroup

[10] ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., Appellant, v. Goldman, Sachs & Co., Respondent, Paulson & Co., Inc. et al., NY INDEX NO. 650027/2011; Court of Appeals, No. 49, at page 4 (5/7/2015). Importantly, the court notes that ACA’s case differs from a prior case, in which the plaintiffs "knew that defendants had not supplied them with the financial information to which they were entitled, triggering 'a heightened degree of diligence.'" (Pappas v Tzolis, 20 NY3d 228, 232-233 [2012], quoting Centro Empresarial Cempresa S.A. 17 NY3d at 279). 

[11] Opinion and order at page 7

[12] Specifically, Loreley v Citigroup; Loreley v Merrill Lynch; Basis Yield v Goldman; and CDIB v Morgan Stanley 

[13] For example, the court specifically notes that the disclosure that Morgan Stanley would be acting in ‘its own commercial interest’ was … insufficient to put the Fund on notice of Morgan Stanley’s intent to offload low-rated RMBS from its books.” 

[14] For what it’s worth, our opinion is that it is impractical to have to second guess every party to a transaction; and having tried to, we can argue that it is very difficult if not impossible for a non-rating agency expert (and possibly even for a ratings expert) to effectively reverse-engineer ratings agencies’ complex models – which are often black-boxes, driven by and reliant on internal assumptions that cannot be seen by the most sophisticated of users. Having said that, the court raised its concern that, according to its reading of the amended complaint, HSH may not have provided sufficient factual information to support such the allegation, in the court’s words, “that the credit rating conferred on a security by a rating agency did not necessarily correspond to the security's risk level as perceived by the market.” 

[15] Ruling at page 26

[16] Here we have the same issue: Does disclosing the potential for delays in data distribution appropriately notify the subscriber that the data provided to him was always or regularly or intentionally being delayed? Aside from the omissions complained of, this disclosure, itself seems untruthful. Is it not misleading to state that “a quote might not be current,” when knowing that it is not current? If one wanted to be honest, one would disclose: “quotes are not current – beware!” 

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CASE CAPTIONS (links can be clicked to download opinions)

ACA v Goldman: ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., Appellant, v. Goldman, Sachs & Co., Respondent, Paulson & Co., Inc. et al., NY INDEX NO. 650027/2011 

Basis Yield v Goldman: Basis Yield Alpha Fund (Master) v Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., NY INDEX NO. 652996/2011; 2014 NY Slip Op 00587 

Basis Yield v Morgan Stanley: Basis Yield Alpha Fund Master v Morgan Stanley, NY INDEX NO. 652129/2012 

CDIB v Morgan Stanley: China Development Industrial Bank v Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated et al, NY INDEX NO. 650957/2010 

FHFA v Nomura: Federal Housing Finance Agency (“FHFA”) v Nomura Holding America, Inc., et al, 11-cv-06201-DLC 

HSH Nordbank: HSH Nordbank AG v UBS AG et al, 2012 NY Slip Op 02276 

Lanier v BATS: HAROLD R. LANIER, on behalf of himself individually and on behalf of others similarly situated v BATS Exchange, Inc. et al, 14-cv-03865-KBF 

Loreley v Citigroup: Loreley Financing (Jersey) No. 3 Ltd., et al v Citigroup Global Markets Inc., et al, NY INDEX NO. 650212/2012; 2014 N.Y. Slip Op. 03358 (N.Y. App. Div. 2014) 

Loreley v Merrill Lynch: Loreley Financing (Jersey) No. 28, Limited v Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated, et al., NY INDEX NO. 652732/2011; 2014 NY Slip Op 03326 (N.Y. App. Div. 2014) 


DISCLAIMER:  This blog has been posted for informational purposes only.  PF2 does not provide advice of any kind.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Broker Order Routing, in a High Frequency Trading World

The brokers/dealers have had their fair share of scrutiny among the recent revelations in the high-frequency trading (HFT) saga.

Among the questions being asked are whether Brokers are routing orders to whichever venues pay them most handsomely for the flow ... and potentially not to whichever venue provides best execution for their clientele.

We previously covered the discount brokerage world in which TD Ameritrade is being sued
(see for example Gerald J. Klein, on behalf of himself and all similarly situated v. TD Ameritrade et al, 14-cv-05738) for their order routing decisions.

You may recall that shortly after New York's AG filed a complaint against Broker Barclays in June 2014 for issues relating to its dark pool, Broker Barclays saw a precipitous decline (of roughly 66%) in trading within its own dark pool.   Some of that has returned, but while the tide has turned and the "true" nature of trading activity in some of the dark pools has been revealed, others like Wells Fargo have had to shut their dark pools: each venue requires a certain amount of trading activity to be relevant, or advantageous.

Brokers' Routing Decisions - Where to Send the Trades

Today we're covering a little of what we've found in the brokerage world itself: the changing nature of Brokers' routing orders to their own dark pools. We're spent some time digging through order broker routing information in their quarterly Rule 606 reports, and found some interesting changes in the regularity with which some of the large brokers are routing "non-directed" orders -- orders for which the client hasn't specified a specific execution venue.

The data are sparse, and the time periods short, but it seems like Credit Suisse (which has the largest dark pool) is generally substantially increasing its order routing to its internal dark pool, while Goldies and Broker Barclays are generally decreasing their self-routing decisions.


Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Ocwen Letter Spooks the Market

Ocwen just can't seem to get a break.

After a rough first 9 months to the year -- stock was down 53.5% YTD as of Monday's close -- the release of NY State Fin. Dept. Superintendent Benjamin Lawsky's letter to Ocwen's general counsel sent the stock tumbling again. 

Our last coverage was back in February, after Ocwen had agreed to a settlement fee, with the CFPB, of $2.2 billion, for its missteps from 2009-2012.  We showed the potential for this litigation expense to grow, as there were even more complaints in 2013 against Ocwen than in 2012.

The stock is now down 24.8% from Monday's close: Lawsky's letter included some powerful language, some of which could have repercussions to Ocwen beyond the immediate scope of the letter.


Lawsky's previous letter to Ocwen, dated April 2014, brought to the fore what Lawsky's office saw to be a "particularly troubling issue" - "the relationship between Ocwen and Altisource Portfolio’s subsidiary, Hubzu, which Ocwen uses as its principal online auction site for the sale of its borrowers’ homes facing foreclosure, as well as investor-owned properties following foreclosure." 
Hubzu appears to be charging auction fees on Ocwen-serviced properties that are up to three times the fees charged to non-Ocwen customers. In other words, when Ocwen selects its affiliate Hubzu to host foreclosure or short sale auctions on behalf of mortgage investors and borrowers, the Hubzu auction fee is 4.5%; when Hubzu is competing for auction business on the open market, its fee is as low as 1.5%. These higher fees, of course, ultimately get passed on to the investors and struggling borrowers who are typically trying to mitigate their losses and are not involved in the selection of Hubzu as the host site.
In August, Moody's downgraded Ocwen's primary servicer and special servicer ratings - and left both assessments on watch for further downgrade.  The shareholder class action complaints started to trickle in in August, and by September 2014 a handful of shareholder complaints had been filed.  (See for example NORBERT TUSEO, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated v. OCWEN FINANCIAL CORPORATION, RONALD M. FARIS, JOHN V. BRITTI and WILLIAM C. ERBEY)

The recent information about Ocwen's potentially backdating thousands of foreclosure documents is relevant not just insofar as it affects the nature of all current shareholder litigation, but insofar as Ocwen is being sued by mortgage borrowers, directly, and by mortgage market players and investors.  Crucially, Ocwen's servicing performance can be critical to the performance of RMBS securities.

For example, at least five third-party complaints have recently been filed by Nomura Credit & Capital, Inc. against, among other co-defendants, Ocwen as the servicer of the RMBS trusts. The complaints argue that Ocwen's underperformance has harmed the plaintiff, or that the breaches ought alternatively to relieve Nomura of certain of its duties to the trust.  The following excerpt comes from Nomura Credit & Capital, Inc. v Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., and Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC, filed 8/11/14.


This public embarrassment can make it more difficult for Ocwen to defend itself in the existing and future litigation as it will inevitable have suffered a deterioration in reputation capital.  Last but not least, it will likely further hinder any near-term hopes Ocwen may have had of buying additional mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), and expanding its business.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

The JPMorgan Settlement

Following on from our prior RMBS litigation coverage (FHFA RMBS Litigation Totals and A Proliferating "Putback" Problemo) we wanted to add some color to the recent $13bn settlement by JPMorgan.

Initial settlement details:
  1. JPMorgan may not pursue indemnification claims from the FDIC for any matters covered by the settlement. 
  2. Included in the settlement is the $4 billion FHFA settlement regarding private-label RMBS losses ($1.26 billion to Fannie Mae; $2.74 billion to Freddie Mac). 
  3. Previously mentioned $680mm and $480mm rep & warranty settlements with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively, are not included in this agreement. (This leaves open the possibility for JPM to claim that the FDIC is responsible for WaMu originations in the rep & warranty settlement.) This could impact the net result of Deutsche Bank National Trust Co. v. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. et al. 
  4. Criminal probe is not closed. 
  5. Acknowledgment of misrepresentation, but no explicit admission of wrongdoing.
Our additions are in blue within the table. Sources are at the end.


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http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2013/November/13-ag-1237.html http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25649/FHFAJPMorganSettlementAgreement.pdf http://www.justice.gov/iso/opa/resources/61620131119191331856335.pdf http://www.ncua.gov/News/Pages/NW20131119JPMorganChase.aspx http://www.justice.gov/iso/opa/resources/72420131119202254491668.pdf http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2013/pr13103.html http://www.justice.gov/iso/opa/resources/51720131119202421482972.pdf 
https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-kamala-d-harris-announces-300-million-settlement-jp-morgan http://www.businesswire.com/news/sacbee/20131119006821/en http://news.delaware.gov/2013/11/19/biden-secures-nearly-20-million-for-delaware/ 
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20131119/BLOGS02/131119738/illinois-pension-funds-get-100-million-in-chase-settlement# 
 http://www.mass.gov/ago/news-and-updates/press-releases/2013/2013-11-19-jpmorgan-settlement.html http://www.ag.ny.gov/press-release/ag-schneiderman-led-state-federal-working-group-announces-13-billion-settlement http://www.justice.gov/iso/opa/resources/64420131119164759163425.pdf

Friday, November 1, 2013

FHFA RMBS Litigation Totals

From complaints (and amended complaints) and settlements we were able to string together this table of potential litigation costs that may be be borne by some of the major financial institutions who sold RMBS securities to FHFA -- based on a basic extrapolation of settlement expenses from the two data points that have been disclosed.  

This covers only RMBS purchase litigation -- not the mortgage repurchases, or "put-backs."  The totals potentially due to FHFA, on behalf of Fannie and Freddie, also ignore any potential settlements the FHFA might strike with other parties which they have not sued, like Wells Fargo. Numbers in the right-hand columns are in billions.


Monday, April 8, 2013

Dispelling a Myth or Two about the Ratings Lawsuits

Since the Justice Department sued S&P for fraud in February, the media has been awash with concerns as to whether a lawsuit against Moody's will inevitably follow - and questions about the lack of a lawsuit against Moody's pointing to the potential for bias on the side of the DOJ.  The inference drawn was that the DOJ might be targeting S&P because S&P downgraded the debt of the United States.

Meanwhile, market participants and researchers have honed in on the fact that other credit rating agencies issued “virtually identical” grades on the same securities that lie at the heart of the lawsuit.

Commenting on the fact that S&P alone has been sued (at this stage) by the DOJ, a member of S&P's general counsel reportedly remarked “The S&P ratings for the CDOs at issue in this lawsuit are identical to the ratings issued by other rating agencies. So we don’t have an explanation and you’ll have to ask the Department of Justice…”

Meanwhile, Edwin Groshans, a managing director, at Washington-based equity research firm Height Analytics LLC, reportedly commented that “Given that the ratings between S&P and Moody’s were identical, a loss by S&P would create significant uncertainty for Moody’s regarding whether the Department of Justice would take action against it also…”

Of course, while these arguments may have been carefully considered, and may even have some rational basis, they are built on a faulty premise.  Let us explain why. 

Straw Man Argument

The key distinction is that the DOJ is not suing for fraud in the rating provided.  The DOJ isn't saying the rating was wrong or imprecise or otherwise lacking in predictive content. Therefore, that Moody's provided the same or an equivalent rating has no import.

The DOJ is saying that in the context of these securities, it is concerned that S&P maneuvered its ratings process, in a manner neither objective nor unbiased, to achieve a necessary result (including the generation or maintenance of revenues).  As such, if Moody's already had achieved THAT result based on its then-current methodology, it would not have had to maneuver towards it.  No foul committed.

In the case of active ratings competition, it is often (but not always) the case that any jockeying done is done (or needs to be done) by the more severe rating agency/agencies, so as to allow them to compete with other raters who have a rosier view. 

An Example

Suppose we have a world with only 3 rating agencies – Moody's, Fitch and S&P – with two being selected to rate each bond.  If for example Moody's and Fitch were the two raters getting business because their methodologies resulted in the highest rating, S&P alone would have an incentive to maneuver so as to win new business or disrupt status quo.  If they did, and their actions resulted in their achieving the same view as say Moody's, then they may be included on certain deals.  But how does this translate into any misdemeanor on the side of Moody's?

Is S&P is being subjected to special attention, or targeted?  We don't know.  But it has nothing whatever to do with the nature of the lawsuit that, because Moody's may have rated the assets at similar levels, it ought similarly to be accused of improper conduct.

That Moody's achieved a similar rating to S&P does not imply that its ratings process was influenced in a manner similar to that described by the DOJ in its lawsuit against S&P.

It may be the case that in certain scenarios all 3 rating agencies simultaneously, knowingly, intentionally, lowered their ratings standards to compete for the same business, while advertising themselves as being independent investor services.  This is possible - but until that is known to have occurred, any argument suggesting Moody's ought to be similarly defensive to any charges alleged of S&P is, to us, simply an informal fallacy

Friday, February 3, 2012

Analysis of The Shortcomings of Statistical Sampling in the Mortgage Loan Due Diligence Process

This is a popular litigation-related piece on our website we thought we'd share through this post (pdf version available here) - enjoy the read.



Introduction

Financial institutions, when assembling mortgage pools for the purpose of inclusion in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), often hire independent analytical companies, like Clayton Holdings LLC (“Clayton”), to perform due diligence on the loans and flag any that are problematic.

Leading up to the financial downturn, Clayton reviewed mortgages for its clients - investment and commercial banks and lending platforms, including those of Bear Stearns, Barclays, Bank of America, C-Bass, Countrywide, Credit Suisse, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Doral, Ellington, Freddie Mac, Greenwich, Goldman, HSBC, JP Morgan, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, Société Générale, UBS and Washington Mutual (the “Issuers”). As such Clayton was purportedly one of the larger due diligence companies that analyzed whether these loans met specifications like loan-to-value ratios, credit scores and the income levels of borrowers.

Clayton describes, in the presentation it provided to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (“FCIC”), the results of its review of a total of 911,039 mortgage loans between Q1 2006 and Q2 2007 1. As can be seen from the chart, of the loans shown to Clayton, Clayton determined approximately 72% of them to be in compliance, and 28% of them to be out of compliance with the standards tested, or “non-conforming.”

Upon determining that a loan failed to meet its guidelines, an Issuer (i.e., Clayton’s client) would have the ability to exercise their contractual right in “putting back” these non-conforming loans to the mortgage lenders – New Century, Fremont, Countrywide, Decision One Mortgage – rather than include them in securitizations.

The regulatory bodies, and the media, have concentrated heavily on the sizeable portions of non-conforming loans, and the lowering of underwriting standards throughout this period; but for this analysis, we concentrate on a more illuminating aspect of the way in which non-conforming loans ultimately found their way into the securitized RMBS pools.

There are at least two ways that non-conforming loans can find their way into the securitizations:
  • First, the Issuer may choose to waive the loan back into the pool, despite its being originally rejected by Clayton.
  • Second, a more overwhelming mechanism, is to not show the loan to Clayton.


The Intricacies of Loan Sampling

Importantly, it seems to have been common practice for Issuers to show only a sample of the loans to Clayton. A sample risks being unreflective of the population of loans, but random sampling can provide an effective statistical approximation under very strict conditions. It can be a cheaper process and, if the sample is well chosen, can accurately reflect the pool.

The objective of sampling is satisfied if the randomly-selected sample is sufficiently large, and is deemed to be in order. Alternatively, if the sample fails to meet expectations, the entire portfolio ought to be revisited. However, in the mortgage due diligence process the samples were often deemed to be problematic – they resulted in an average of 28% of loans failing their criteria. Importantly, the samples were then adjusted, as we understand it, but the original portfolios were not: the Issuers would only put back certain non-conforming loans from that sample.

In this case, the resulting sample, after throwing out certain non-conforming loans, fails to accurately depict the remaining portfolio of loans it was chosen to represent.



How the Sampling Process Worked, and Difficulties Therewith

Former President and COO of Clayton, D. Keith Johnson, explained to the FCIC committee, during their hearing of September 2010, that in the 2004 to 2006 time period, sample sizes went down to the region of two to three percent2. As the sample size decreases, which it did, the effect of the sampling process alone begins to undermine the effectiveness of the due diligence process.

The media have focused their attentions on what happened to the 28% non-conforming loans – the slices in red in the associated charts. Indeed, many of these non-conforming loans, approximately 39%, were not “kicked out” or put back to the mortgage lenders, but were “waived” back in to the to-be-securitized portfolio. This 39% is substantial, and a factor worthy of the media’s attentions.

But the game-changing fact is not among these 28% non-conformers, or the 39% of them which remained in the securitized pool. These are only part of a sample, and when the sample becomes insignificantly small, its overall contribution to the portfolio as a whole is rendered less meaningful. Rather, it is more prudent to consider the composition of the pool as a whole.

For illustrative purposes, let us assume that the sample loans shown to Clayton represented 3% of the pools, on the higher end of those referred to in the abovementioned Johnson hearing. Let us conservatively assume that the sample provided to Clayton was truly randomly selected.3

For a pool of 10,000 loans, Clayton would have been presented with approximately 300 loans, or 3%.

As we can see from the analysis performed, the effect of “throwing out” 61% of all non-conforming loans is marginal: the pool’s overall composition decreased only from 28% non-conforming to 27.67% non-conforming thanks to the due diligence process. Even had the Issuers returned all 84 non-conforming loans, the overall portfolio would not have been greatly altered –non-conforming loans would have declined from 28% to 27.16%.

When a random sample is tampered with, the final product, by definition, no longer represents the original pool. Here, the sample reflects that ultimately 89% of the pool is conforming and 11% are non-conforming (11% = 28% x 39%). But given the reality of the situation, with the original pool remaining status quo, in fact 27.76%, not 11%, of the overall pool was non-conforming, even after the put backs administered as part of the due diligence process.

A well-selected random sample can effectively capture the characteristics of a pool under certain conditions. But an altered sample seldom accurately reflects the original pool.



1 http://fcic-static.law.stanford.edu/cdn_media/fcic-testimony/2010-0923-Clayton-All-Trending-Report.pdf
2 http://fcic.law.stanford.edu/resource/interviews#J
3 course, the sample sizes used and the percentages rejected by Clayton will differ from Issuer to Issuer. So too will the waiver rate.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Illinois Attorney General Sues S&P – Initial Thoughts

Credit risk ratings are becoming a risky business.

Yesterday’s filing of the complaint against S&P (MHP) centers, in essence, on the allegation of false advertising. Stepping in to this issue for a moment, one of the key defenses offered by the raters is that their ratings are protected under the First Amendment rights to express an opinion (their “speech”). But as law professor Eugene Volokh opines in his letter to the House Committee (May 2009) it is within the framework of commercial advertising that “speech aimed at proposing a commercial transaction – is much less constitutionally protected than other kinds of speech.”

In this case, the AG is not really focusing wholly on whether the ratings were wrong, as much as it’s saying that S&P advertised that it was following a certain code in ensuring the appropriate levels of independence and integrity were being brought to the ratings process.

A former SEC enforcement official, Pat Huddleston, once explained that "[when] I say the [financial] industry is dirty, I don't mean to imply everyone in the industry is dirty," … "[only] that the industry typically promises something it has no intention of delivering, which is a client-first way of operating." This is essentially what the complaint argues: that S&P “misrepresented its objectivity” while offering a service that was “materially different from what it purported to provide to the marketplace.”

This goes back, really, to the key reform measure Mark proposed before the Senate in 2009 – that rating agencies would do well to separate themselves from commercial interests, by building a formidable barrier around the ratings process.


First, put a “fire wall” around ratings analysis. The agencies have already separated their rating and non-rating businesses. This is fine but not enough. The agencies must also separate the rating business from rating analysis. Investors need to believe that rating analysis generates a pure opinion about credit quality, not one even potentially influenced by business goals (like building market share). Even if business goals have never corrupted a single rating, the potential for corruption demands a complete separation of rating analysis from bottom-line analysis. Investors should see that rating analysis is virtually barricaded into an “ivory tower,” and kept safe from interference by any agenda other than getting the answer right. The best reform proposal must exclude business managers from involvement in any aspect of rating analysis and, critically also, from any role in decisions about analyst pay, performance and promotions.
Two other elements jump out immediately from the complaint:

First, the complaint specifically argues that the rating agency “misrepresented the factors it considered when evaluating structured finance securities.” Next, the complaint tries to tie S&P’s actions to its publicly-advertised code of conduct, arguing that its actions were inconsistent with the advertised code.

In respect of actions being inconsistent with the code, certain of these arguments are common-place, such as the contention that the rating agencies did not allocate adequate personnel, in opposition to what’s advertised in the code. This of course becomes a contentious issue – you can see S&P coming back with copious evidence of situations in which they did “allocate adequate personnel and financial resources.” But the complaint hones in on the factors considered in producing a rating, and it focuses on two parts of the code:



Section 2.1 of S&P’s Code states: “[S&P] shall not forbear or refrain from taking a Rating Action, if appropriate, based on the potential effect (economic, political, or otherwise) of the Rating Action on [S&P], an issuer, an investor, or other market participant.”

and…

Section 2.1 of S&P’s Code states: “The determination of a rating by a rating committee shall be based only on factors known to the rating committee that are believed by it to be relevant to the credit analysis.”
This brings back to mind, disturbingly, a recent New York Times article (Ratings Firms Misread Signs of Greek Woes) which focuses on the deliberations within Moody’s (MCO) and their concerns about the deeper repercussions of downgrading Greece – rather than the specifics of credit analysis:


“The timing and size of subsequent downgrades depended on which position would dominate in rating committees — those that thought the situation had gotten out of control, and that sharp downgrades were necessary, versus those that thought that not helping Greece or assisting it in a way that would damage confidence would be suicidal for a financially interconnected area such as the euro zone,” Mr. Cailleteau wrote in an e-mail.”

The question then, is whether rating committees were focused on credit analysis, or whether other concerns were at play, aside even from typical business interests. The concerns for rating agencies, from a legal perspective, can become quite real when the debate centers not on ratings accuracy, but on whether the rating accurately reflected their then-current publicly available methodology. There may be substantial risks, therefore, in delaying a downgrade of a systemically important sovereignty or institution (such as a too-big-to-fail bank or a key insurance company) if such downgrade is appropriate per the financial condition of the company or sovereignty, or in providing favorable treatment to certain companies or sovereignties based on the relative level of interconnectedness.

The allegations of misrepresenting factors considered in their analysis opens another can of worms for rating agencies, as they’ll subsequently be increasingly focused on disclosing the sources of the information relied upon. There’s substantial concern, to the extent they’re relying on the issuing entity (in cases in which the issuing entity is itself the paying customer), that such reliance becomes a disclosure issue to the extent the investor may otherwise have assumed the rating agency was independently verifying such information. This was a frequent problem in the world of structured finance CDOs such as those described in the AG’s complaint.

Last, but not least, the complaint focuses on the effectiveness of ratings surveillance. This is a topic of importance to us, as we feel that proper surveillance, alone, may have substantially diminished the magnitude of the crisis. At the very least, certain securitizations that ultimately failed may not have been executed had underlying ratings been appropriately monitored, and several resecuritizations may have become impossible, limiting the the proliferation of so-called toxic assets. See for example: Barriers to Adequate Ratings Surveillance

That’s all for now. There’s a lot more to this complaint, so we suggest you check it out here.